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Mayor-Elect De Blasio

October 15, 2013

Bill de Blasio won the Democratic primary for New York City mayor on September 10, and Joe Lhota won the Republican primary. They will appear on the general election ballot on November 5, along with Independence Party nominee Adolfo Carrion and a whole slew of other third-party candidates.

New York is an overwhelmingly Democratic city, but curiously hasn’t elected a Democratic candidate for mayor since David Dinkins squeaked past Rudy Giuliani in 1989, by 47,000 votes out of 1.9 million votes cast. It’s been 28 years since a Democrat took more than 50 percent in a New York City mayor’s race.

Three weeks from today, that all ends. I’ve seen five major polls since primary day, and two things are notable: they show de Blasio clobbering Lhota, and they show a remarkable consistency in the numbers. Over the last month, De Blasio has polled between 65 and 71 percent; Lhota between 19 and 25 percent; Carrion between 2 and 3 percent; and “other” consistently hits 1 percent. There has been no discernible trend over time, and the variation in numbers is not statistically significant.

So de Blasio will beat Lhota by a bigger percentage than any mayor since Ed Koch took 78 percent of the general election vote when he won a third term in 1985.

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